In my view, those of us dismayed by the misleadingly bullish headline unemployment number should focus less on the probability that the numbers were cooked, which is quite low, and more on the probability of mean reversion in the November number, which is high.
And they should really avoid associating their own credibility with that of Jack Welch, who in his own memoir offered evidence that GE routinely engaged in what in boardrooms is called "earnings management," and out of boardrooms is called "fraud."
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In my view, those of us dismayed by the misleadingly bullish headline unemployment number should focus less on the probability that the numbers were cooked, which is quite low, and more on the probability of mean reversion in the November number, which is high.
And they should really avoid associating their own credibility with that of Jack Welch, who in his own memoir offered evidence that GE routinely engaged in what in boardrooms is called "earnings management," and out of boardrooms is called "fraud."
http://senatorjohnblutarsky.blogspot.com/2012/10/you-really-dont-want-to-hitch-your.html
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