Get prepared for 14% unemployment?

That is the conclusion of one member of the Leadership Council of the Club for Growth. Louis Woodhill makes a stark analysis of the employment market. Also, Louis Woodhill remarks on why the stimulus is not working. We have to hope this prediction is wrong.

From Real Clear Markets:

The unemployment a year ago was 5.5%. Because the potential labor force is growing, we need employment to increase by 1% annually to keep the unemployment rate from going up. The 37.9% investment decline reported by the BEA can be expected to eventually produce a reduction in total employment of about 8.5%. Accordingly, we can expect unemployment to rise to about 14% within a year unless the downward slide of PBI is reversed.

The current 9.5% unemployment rate is causing great economic pain, and life with a 14% jobless rate would be much, much worse. Unfortunately, almost everything that the government has done or is proposing to do to right the economy is actually counterproductive.

Like the Bush administration before it, the Obama team is pinning its hope for economic recovery on "stimulus". Despite the fact that Bush's $168 billion stimulus package in early 2008 had no impact at all, Obama rammed a $787 billion stimulus bill through Congress in January. Now the administration is waiting anxiously for the "stimulus" to take effect. It should not hold its (collective) breath.

"Stimulus" is based upon the superstition that government borrowing and spending creates "demand". In reality, it does no such thing. "Stimulus" is like trying to raise the level of the Hudson River by dipping out a bucket of water, walking five feet downstream, and pouring it back in. The only difference between the Bush and Obama plans is that Obama's bucket is bigger (and will create more debt). Ironically, the July 2 jobs report prompted calls from leftist economists for Obama to go back to the river with an even bigger bucket.(accent is mine)